International Trade of Arms: A Network Approach
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Research and Publications

Publications and Working Papers

  • Pamp, Oliver, Michael Lebacher, Paul W. Thurner, Eva Ziegler (2021): Explaining destinations and volumes of international arms transfers: A novel network-Heckman-selection model. European Journal of Political Economy (Link)
  • Lebacher, Michael, Paul W. Thurner, Goeran Kauermann (2021): Censored Regression for Modelling International Small Arms Trading and its 'Forensic' Use for Exploring Unreported Trades. Accepted for publication: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Link)
  • Lebacher, Michael, Paul W. Thurner, Goeran Kauermann (2021): A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Actor Heterogeneity: An Application to Global Weapons Transfers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 184,1: 201-226. (Link)  
  • Fritz, Cornelius, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann (2020): The Role of Governmental Weapons Procurements in Forecasting Monthly Fatalities in Intrastate Conflicts. (Under Review, arXiv).
  • Fritz, Cornelius, Thurner P. and Kauermann G. (2020): Separable and Semiparametric Network-based Counting Processes applied to the International Combat Aircraft Trades, (Under Review, arXiv)
  • Fritz, Cornelius, Lebacher M. and Kauermann G. (2020): Tempus Volat, Hora Fugit - A Survey of Tie-Oriented Dynamic Network Models in Discrete and Continuous Time. Statistica Neerlandica, Vol. 74, No. 3 (Link)
  • Lebacher Michael and Göran Kauermann (2019): Regression-based Network Reconstruction with Nodal and Dyadic Covariate Effects (under Review, arXiv)
  • Lebacher Michael, Thurner Paul W and Kauermann Göran (2019): Exploring Dependence Structures in the International Arms Trade Network: A Network Autocorrelation Approach. Statistical Modelling, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Link)
  • Thurner Paul W., Cranmer Skyler J., Schmid Christian S. and Kauermann Göran (2019): Network Interdependencies and the Evolution of Arms Trade 1953-2013. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 63 No.7 (Link)
  • Pamp, Oliver, Florian Dendorfer, and Paul W. Thurner (2018): Arm Your Friends and Save on Defense? The Impact of Arms Exports on Military Expenditures. Public Choice 177,1–2: 165–187
  • Schulze, Christian, Oliver Pamp, and Paul W. Thurner (2017): Economic Incentives and the Effectiveness of Non-Proliferation Norms: German Major Conventional Arms Transfers 1953-2013. International Studies Quarterly 61,3: 529–543. 
  • Pamp, Oliver and Paul W. Thurner (2017): Trading Arms and the Demand for Military Expenditures: Empirical Explorations Using New SIPRI-Data. Defence and Peace Economics 28: 457–472.

Conferences

Talks

  • Lebacher Michael: Regression-based Network Reconstruction with Nodal and Dyadic Covariate Effects at the DAGSTAT Conference in Munich, Mach 2019.
  • Lebacher Michael: International Arms Trade: A Dynamic Separable Network Model With Heterogeneity Components at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, January 2019 as part of the Economic Risk Seminar.
  • Lebacher Michael: Talk on The Trade Network of Firearms and Ammunition: A Censored Regression Model with Endogenous Network Effects at the COSTNET conference in Warsaw, 27. September 2018.
  • Lebacher Michael: Talk on International Arms Trade: A Dynamic Separable Network Model With Heterogeneity Components at the Statistische Woche in Linz, September 2018 as part of the main topic Semiparametric Regression Models.
  • Lebacher Michael: Talk on International Arms Trade: A Network Approach at the Nachwuchsworkshop of the Statistische Woche in Linz, Monday 10th September 2018
  • Lebacher Michael: Talk on International Arms Transfers: A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Heterogeneity Components at the IWSM Conference in Bristol, Wednesday 18th July 2018 (link to schedule)
  • Kauermann Göran: Talk on Statistical Models for Network Data Analysis - A Gentle Introduction at the University of the Basque Country in Bilbao, February 2018 (link)
  • Ziegler Eva: Talk on Modelling the exchange of weapons in the Cold War period: A two stage approach for valued networks at the ETSG Conference in Florence, September 2017 (pdf, 4.3 MB)
  • Paul W. Thurner: The International Trade of Arms: A Network Approach. Bayer. Akademie der Wissenschaften, 21.07.2017 Munich.
  • Paul W. Thurner: The International Trade of Arms: A Network Approach. 16th Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, June 2016 Milano.
  • Paul W. Thurner: The International Trade of Arms: A Network Approach. European Political Science Association EPSA Annual Conference June 2015 Vienna.
  • Paul W. Thurner: The International Trade of Arms: A Network Approach. Annual Political Networks Conference June 2015, Portland, Or.

Poster

  • Lebacher Michael: Poster and Short Talk on International Arms Trade: A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Heterogeneity Components at the CostNet Conference in Palma de Mallorca, October 2017 (pdf, 3.65 MB)

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